NFL Draft 2026: Why fantasy football players need to keep college target share in mind when evaluating WR prospects
NFL Draft 2026: Why fantasy football players need to keep college target share in mind when evaluating WR prospects
Joel SmythThu, April 2, 2026 at 6:05 PM UTC
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April has arrived! The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and with it, fantasy football drafts will be on the horizon. Whether you’re prepping to draft rookies in a dynasty league or shooting for the stars in August drafts, this story is a great place to start.
One stat for rookie WRs is all we need here to avoid lower upside players and increase our odds of finding the next star: Target Share.
The parameters we’re working with:
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Since 2021
Power-5 WRs Only
Round 1-3 selections
Removing the extreme college slot WRs
Adjusted Target Share: +2% for each Round 1-3 WR in the player’s college WR room
Players with higher target shares in college often possess a more well-rounded game. They are not one-dimensional gadget WRs or outside jump-ball specialists. Players with lower target shares in college won’t always be NFL busts, but (way) more often than not, they will at minimum be limited to becoming role players rather than 8+ target/game stars.
College target share importance since 2021. (Photo by Joel Smyth/Yahoo Sports)
You want your WR above the 25% mark. The late-round WRs get a little more hope, and the first-rounders have an incredible hit rate.
Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State Sun Devils
The highest among these prospects by a considerable margin is Arizona State wideout Jordyn Tyson. At 33%, he is below only Drake London, Malik Nabers and DeVonta Smith, all of whom have produced a top-15 fantasy season early in their careers. Tyson’s target share could be even higher, as it was over 35% before his final two games when he was limited by injuries.
Source: “AOL Sports”
